Duluth, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

998
FXUS63 KDLH 051112
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
612 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow showers are expected this afternoon and evening.
Some robust snow showers with reduced visibility and quick minor
accumulations are possible, most likely for the Borderland and and
MN Arrowhead.

- Areas of light snow continue through Monday with some enhanced
snowfall rates at times that could once again lead to areas of
reduced visibility and minor accumulations. Locally higher snowfall
totals of 2-5" are possible along the South Shore.

- One very cold morning Tuesday and then temperatures moderate and
gradually warm through the 7 day forecast with a daily freeze/thaw.

- Next chance of precipitation Wednesday with a potential rain/snow
mix.

- Heads up: 20-60% chance of heavy precipitation April 12-13 as
  robust Gulf moisture pushes into the Upper Midwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A bit of a reprieve from the last several days of active weather
early this morning. Skies are trying to clear as yesterday`s system
pulls off to the east, with some lingering gusty northwest winds and
light snow around Lake Superior tapering off through this morning.

Weak ridging embedded within the upper level flow ahead of an
incoming clipper system will try its best to allow for some WAA
today, bringing high temperatures back above freezing into the 30s
and low 40s. Don`t get too comfortable though, as that
aforementioned clipper system is expected to push another wave of
precipitation into the Northland through this afternoon. Those warm
surface temperatures should lend themselves to steep low level lapse
rates and decent MUCAPE which could make for some more convective-y
precipitation, especially while the sun is up. At the earliest,
Koochiching County could see rain/snow showers beginning around noon
with precipitation then expanding and pushing southeast through the
afternoon and early evening, arriving into Hayward/Phillips in the 4-
6pm timeframe. There is some uncertainty on exactly where the
rain/snow line could end up as that will be influenced by just how
far north the noticeable WAA gets and the effects of dynamic cooling
once showers get going. With this forecast update, we have greater
coverage of rain showers during the afternoon outside of the MN
Arrowhead, with snow not becoming the dominant precipitation type
until later in the evening. Generally expecting a couple hundreds of
rain with a trace to 1" of snow by midnight Monday.  For those that
do see snow, quick reductions in visibility could be possible.

A second wave of upper level vorticity should push another round of
precipitation into the area going into Monday, this time mostly snow
as CAA wins the temperature battle. Arriving into northern MN early
Monday morning (12-3AM) and then pushing across the lake into NW WI
(2-5AM) this push should be somewhat more successful at snow
accumulation, though lingering warm surface temperatures from this
afternoon could initially play a limiting factor. Areas along
the Borderlands and MN Arrowhead could pick up a quick 0.5-2" by
sunrise Monday, and amounts along the South Shore could be
locally boosted by northwest winds giving a terrain bump to
several hours of more intense rates. 1-5" are possible in the
higher terrain of Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron County, greatest
in northern Iron County where a Winter Weather Advisory may be
needed. An extra diurnal boost Monday afternoon could lead to a
widespread afternoon strato-cumulus cloud field popping up for
several hours with some light snow showers possible for most
folks. The best synoptic support in that timeframe will be
moving over north-central to NE WI, where more robust snow
showers to near snow squalls could be possible.

Behind Monday`s precipitation, high pressure builds in quickly
bringing clear skies. Alongside robust CAA, temperatures should tank
into Tuesday morning. There is a 30-60% chance for low temperatures
to fall below zero for parts of NE MN Tuesday morning, and most of
the area will likely be in the single digits except those in very
close proximity to Lake Superior. The chill shouldn`t last for long
though, with afternoon highs returning above freezing.

An upper level cut off low and attending vort max look to barrel
down the Canadian Rockies into Wednesday, joining forces with
another weak surface low pressure system pulling gulf moisture up
the central Plains. This should be the catalyst for our next chance
of precipitation beginning Tuesday night and continuing on/off through
Thursday.  Mother Nature, the wiseacre that she is, is keeping the
meteorologists guessing as to whether this system will be winter or
spring themed. Latest trends, especially in the GEFS, have been
nudging the surface low pressure system further south - bringing sub-
freezing temperatures and areas of snow into the Northland. At the
moment, it looks like precipitation types could start as snow into
Wednesday morning and then switch over to a rain/snow mix Wednesday
and into Thursday. However, uncertainty remains high and storm
tracks are still adjusting in both placement and timing.

Looking ahead, we should generally see a warming trend into the
weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s and overnight lows starting to
play with the freezing line by Sunday/Monday. This should kick off
another round of thawing and snowmelt across the Northland (and
maybe nudge the leaf-out line a little closer). Late next weekend
into the week of April 13, longer range guidance suggests the
potential for a corridor of precipitation to set up from Texas to
the Great Lakes. The CPC 8-14 day hazard outlook puts much of the
Northland in a 20-60% risk area of heavy precipitation April 12-13
(greater chance in NW WI). In this timeframe, periodic rounds of
locally heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible, but uncertainty
is high as to whether or not that would actually get as far north as
our area. If it does, it could enhance area streamflow and river
levels, especially if combined with snowmelt (most likely for MN
Arrowhead and portions of the South Shore). Hydrologic ensemble
output does show the potential (5-50% chance) for some rivers along
the South Shore to rise near action stage in this timeframe.
Something to keep an eye on!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

All VFR conditions early this morning with winds having died down.
Through late this morning into the afternoon, expect a return to
MVFR at all terminals as the beginning of the next system moves in
with some rain and snow showers this afternoon and early this
evening. Precipitation should taper off through the evening but
lower clouds remain. Some rain/snow showers could be slightly more
robust and bring sudden reductions in visibility. A second round of
snow/rain showers is possible for INL and HIB overnight into Monday
morning. MVFR ceilings continue through the TAF period, and some IFR
ceilings are possible at HYR going into the overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Northwest winds should taper through the day today, becoming
slightly more southwesterly into the evening. North to northwest
winds return Monday, gusting again 20-30knots, and another round of
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Peak winds are most
likely Monday morning into midday, and then those winds should start
to weaken overnight into Tuesday. Tuesday should feature mostly weak
winds, becoming southerly through the day. With those south winds,
there still could be some stronger gusts up to 20 knots between
Grand Portage and Isle Royale.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140-
     141.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ148-
     150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens