Duluth, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

636
FXUS63 KDLH 122352
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
552 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty south winds will persist through the overnight hours with
  gusts around 25 mph.

- Light rain enters from the west tomorrow. Rain totals will
  largely be less than 0.25" with our western counties seeing
  the majority of the rain.

- Quiet weather Thursday into the weekend with highs climbing
  into the upper 40s and low 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Current Conditions/Tonight:

The pressure gradient has been gradually increasing this
afternoon as an upper level trough moves over the central
Rockies. This has lead to an increase in southerly winds with
gusts upwards of 25 mph. The gradient does not relax overnight
so expect these gusts to persist past sunset.

Wednesday Rain:

The aforementioned upper level trough enters from the west tomorrow
morning bringing light rain back into the forecast. The drier air in
place will take some time to saturate out with rain chances slowly
progressing west to east through the day. The latest trends have
shown dry air to the east continuing to slow the progression and
slightly eat away at the overall rain totals. High res guidance is
coming into fairly good agreement with having a corridor have light
rain persisting through much of tomorrow extending from the Brainerd
Lakes region up towards International Falls. Within this sector an
inverted trough will be acting as the focal point for a surface
boundary as moisture advection continues through the day. New rain
totals are slightly lower than the previous package with this
corridor of rain seeing around 0.25" of rain. Elsewhere across the
region will largely be 0.10" or less. As far as snow chances go,
thermal profiles look too warm to support flakes at this time.
This latest update has removed the mention of snow from the
forecast.

Thursday-Saturday Quiet and Warm:

Surface high pressure builds in for Thursday as upper level
ridging moves overhead. Quiet weather persists into Saturday as
a vertically stacked low moves across Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
This will help to draw in some warmer air to the Northland with
highs climbing into the upper 40s and low 50s by Friday and
Saturday. Our overnight lows will be especially warm and largely
staying above freezing. For context this is roughly 10-15F
above normal.

Sunday-Next Week Precipitation Returns:

Rain chances return late Saturday into Sunday as an upper level
trough moves across the Northern Plains. Cooler air on the backside
of the low may introduce some snowflakes but at this time the QPF
looks minimal. There does seem to be some growing hype for a storm
system next week. Cluster analysis shows deep troughing digging into
the desert southwest. This would lead to cross barrier flow over the
Rockies and the potential for a Colorado Low to develop. However,
looking at all the individual possible low locations 24 hrs after
formation has an extremely large spread. Low tracks ranging from
southern MN to southern AR. With such a large spread in the models
the probabilities for impactful weather remain low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Southeasterly to southerly winds will remain gusty overnight,
with areas of LLWS across the region. Gusts of 22-25kts are
possible through much of Wednesday, before winds diminish late
in the forecast period.

Ahead of an approaching low pressure system that brings light
rain to the area, cigs lower early Wednesday morning. Expect
MVFR cigs as early as 13/09Z at BRD, with cigs falling eastward
through the morning hours. By Wednesday afternoon, IFR cigs and
reduced vis due to rain are possible at most terminals.

At HYR, VFR conditions expected through 14/00Z as low cigs and
light rain remain just west of the terminal through this
forecast period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 301 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Enhanced southerly winds will continue through the overnight hours
with Small Craft Advisories out across the nearshore waters. Winds
will taper off tomorrow with wave heights coming down on the North
Shore in the afternoon hours. Light rain chances enter tomorrow
afternoon from the west and will linger through the overnight
period.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ121-141-
     142-147-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Wednesday for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ144>146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ148.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...Britt